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Negative feedback between climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), mediated by the weathering of silicate minerals on land, is thought to provide the primary regulation of Earth’s climate on geological timescales. By contrast, we found that faster feedbacks involving organic matter are not only critical to Earth system recovery but can also create unexpected instability. Our Earth system model experiments show how sedimentary organic carbon burial, amplified by redox-sensitive phosphorus regeneration, can outweigh silicate weathering and paradoxically drive climate overcooling in response to massive CO₂release. This instability depends on the initial balance between silicate weathering and organic carbon burial in addition to the state of global phosphorus cycling. It is most strongly expressed at intermediate ocean redox states, which may help us understand the timing of past ice ages. 

Abstract Geologic records support a short-lived carbon release, known as the pre-onset excursion (POE), shortly before the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~ 56 Ma). However, the source and pace of the POE carbon release and its relationship to the PETM remain unresolved. Here we show a high-temporal-resolution stratigraphic record spanning the POE and PETM from the eastern Tethys Ocean that documents the evolution of surface ocean carbon cycle, redox and eutrophication, confirming the global nature of the POE. Biomarkers extracted from the sedimentary record indicate a smaller environmental perturbation during the POE than that during the PETM in the eastern Tethys Ocean. Earth system modeling constrained by observed δ¹³C and pH data indicates that the POE was driven by a largely thermogenic CO₂source, likely associated with sill intrusions prior to the main eruption phase of the North Atlantic Igneous Province and possibly biogeochemical feedbacks involving the release of biogenic methane. 

Abstract. Iodine (I) abundance in marine carbonates (measured as an elemental ratio with calcium, I / Ca) is of broad interest as a proxy for local/regional ocean redox. This connection arises because the speciation of iodine in seawater, the balance between iodate (IO3-) and iodide (I−), is sensitive to the prevalence of oxic vs. anoxic conditions. However, although I / Ca ratios are increasingly commonly being measured in ancient carbonate samples, a fully quantitative interpretation of this proxy requires the availability of a mechanistic interpretative framework for the marine iodine cycle that can account for the extent and intensity of ocean deoxygenation in the past. Here we present and evaluate a representation of marine iodine cycling embedded in an Earth system model (“cGENIE”) against both modern and paleo-observations. In this framework, we account for IO3- uptake and release of I− through the biological pump, the reduction in ambient IO3- to I− in the water column, and the re-oxidation of I− to IO3-. We develop and test a variety of different plausible mechanisms for iodine reduction and oxidation transformation and contrast model projections against an updated compilation of observed dissolved IO3- and I− concentrations in the present-day ocean. By optimizing the parameters controlling previously proposed mechanisms involved in marine iodine cycling, we find that we can obtain broad matches to observed iodine speciation gradients in zonal surface distribution, depth profiles, and oxygen-deficient zones (ODZs). However, we also identify alternative, equally well performing mechanisms which assume a more explicit mechanistic link between iodine transformation and environment – an ambiguity that highlights the need for more process-based studies on modern marine iodine cycling. Finally, to help distinguish between competing representations of the marine iodine cycle and because our ultimate motivation is to further our ability to reconstruct ocean oxygenation in the geological past, we conducted “plausibility tests” of different model schemes against available I / Ca measurements made on Cretaceous carbonates – a time of substantially depleted ocean oxygen availability compared to modern and hence a strong test of our model. Overall, the simultaneous broad match we can achieve between modeled iodine speciation and modern observations, and between forward proxy modeled I / Ca and geological elemental ratios, supports the application of our Earth system modeling in simulating the marine iodine cycle to help interpret and constrain the redox evolution of past oceans. 

Multiple abrupt warming events (“hyperthermals”) punctuated the Early Eocene and were associated with deep-sea temperature increases of 2 to 4 °C, seafloor carbonate dissolution, and negative carbon isotope (δ¹³C) excursions. Whether hyperthermals were associated with changes in the global ocean overturning circulation is important for understanding their driving mechanisms and feedbacks and for gaining insight into the circulation’s sensitivity to climatic warming. Here, we present high-resolution benthic foraminiferal stable isotope records (δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O) throughout the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (~53.26 to 49.14 Ma) from the deep equatorial and North Atlantic. Combined with existing records from the South Atlantic and Pacific, these indicate consistently amplified δ¹³C excursion sizes during hyperthermals in the deep equatorial Atlantic. We compare these observations with results from an intermediate complexity Earth system model to demonstrate that this spatial pattern of δ¹³C excursion size is a predictable consequence of global warming-induced changes in ocean overturning circulation. In our model, transient warming drives the weakening of Southern Ocean-sourced overturning circulation, strengthens Atlantic meridional water mass aging gradients, and amplifies the magnitude of negative δ¹³C excursions in the equatorial to North Atlantic. Based on model-data consistency, we conclude that Eocene hyperthermals coincided with repeated weakening of the global overturning circulation. Not accounting for ocean circulation impacts on δ¹³C excursions will lead to incorrect estimates of the magnitude of carbon release driving hyperthermals. Our finding of weakening overturning in response to past transient climatic warming is consistent with predictions of declining Atlantic Ocean overturning strength in our warm future. 

Abstract. We extend the ecological component (ECOGEM) of the carbon-centric Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model (cGEnIE) to include a diatom functional group. ECOGEM represents plankton community dynamics via a spectrum of ecophysiological traits originally based on size and plankton food web (phyto- and zooplankton; EcoGEnIE 1.0), which we developed here to account for a diatom functional group (EcoGEnIE 1.1). We tuned EcoGEnIE 1.1, exploring a range of ecophysiological parameter values specific to phytoplankton, including diatom growth and survival (18 parameters over 550 runs) to achieve best fits to observations of diatom biogeography and size class distribution as well as to global ocean nutrient and dissolved oxygen distributions. This, in conjunction with a previously developed representation of opal dissolution and an updated representation of the ocean iron cycle in the water column, resulted in an improved distribution of dissolved oxygen in the water column relative to the previous EcoGEnIE 1.0, with global export production (7.4 Gt C yr−1) now closer to previous estimates. Simulated diatom biogeography is characterised by larger size classes dominating at high latitudes, notably in the Southern Ocean, and smaller size classes dominating at lower latitudes. Overall, diatom biological productivity accounts for ∼20 % of global carbon biomass in the model, with diatoms outcompeting other phytoplankton functional groups when dissolved silica is available due to their faster maximum photosynthetic rates and reduced palatability to grazers. Adding a diatom functional group provides the cGEnIE Earth system model with an extended capability to explore ecological dynamics and their influence on ocean biogeochemistry. 

Climate and continental configuration combined to make Early Paleozoic animals susceptible to extinction. 

The largest mass extinction event is associated with changes in degassing style of the Siberian Traps volcanism. 

Abstract Paleontological reconstructions of plankton community structure during warm periods of the Cenozoic (last 66 million years) reveal that deep-dwelling ‘twilight zone’ (200–1000 m) plankton were less abundant and diverse, and lived much closer to the surface, than in colder, more recent climates. We suggest that this is a consequence of temperature’s role in controlling the rate that sinking organic matter is broken down and metabolized by bacteria, a process that occurs faster at warmer temperatures. In a warmer ocean, a smaller fraction of organic matter reaches the ocean interior, affecting food supply and dissolved oxygen availability at depth. Using an Earth system model that has been evaluated against paleo observations, we illustrate how anthropogenic warming may impact future carbon cycling and twilight zone ecology. Our findings suggest that significant changes are already underway, and without strong emissions mitigation, widespread ecological disruption in the twilight zone is likely by 2100, with effects spanning millennia thereafter.